Shanghai
China's International Schools Face Toughest Enrolment Conditions in a Decade
A new Hurun Education report finds families returning to state schools amid economic pressure, while shrinking expat populations squeeze the market further in Shanghai and Beijing.
The numbers behind China's international school sector make for uncomfortable reading. According to Skoobuzz, citing the Hurun Education Top International Schools in China 2025 report, "rising financial pressures led many families to opt for more affordable state education, while the departure of many expatriate families reduced enrolment pools" across the country's two largest markets: Shanghai and Beijing.
The Hurun ranking, now in its seventh year, placed Shanghai-based YK Pao School at the top for the seventh consecutive time, followed by Shenzhen College of International Education and Shanghai Pinghe School. The rankings themselves reflect stable reputations at the top end. What the accompanying commentary reveals, however, is that the conditions sustaining those reputations are under real strain.
Why families are pulling back
The Hurun report identifies two distinct but reinforcing pressures. First, domestic economic conditions have tightened household budgets, making annual fees that can reach RMB 300,000 or more a harder case to make. Second, the expat population in mainland China, long a reliable foundation for the non-Chinese passport-holder tier, has contracted. Schools that built their model on a combination of international families and aspirational Chinese parents are finding both pools shallower than they were three years ago.
The report also noted a shift in university destination preferences, with Hong Kong and Singapore gaining favour as higher-education hubs at the expense of the United States and the United Kingdom. Visa difficulties and high tuition costs in both Western markets have made the regional alternatives more attractive, which in turn is reshaping which curriculum pathways parents prioritise when choosing a school in Shanghai or Beijing.
How schools are responding
For operators, the near-term response has been to lean harder on what state schools cannot offer: smaller class sizes, enriched co-curricular programmes, and clear university-destination data. The Hurun report found that 55 percent of ranked schools offer two or three curriculum systems, a diversification strategy that reflects pressure to retain families across a wider range of aspirations and budgets. Whether that breadth translates into enrolment recovery in 2026 and 2027 remains to be seen, but the structural shift under way in China's international school market is increasingly difficult to dismiss as a temporary dip.